A new study by Juniper Research has indicated that the mobile money transfer market will be particularly vulnerable to the effects of the global recession. The rapidly changing economic downturn is forecast to have an immediate impact on the gross value of mobile money transfers, with the market in the worst case scenario reaching $73bn by 2011. This is some 50% less than previously forecast, although strong growth overall is still expected in the long term, says Juniper.
The Juniper Research report determined that the short term impact of the recession is likely to be felt most severely in this market owing to the effect of job losses in the migrant worker population.
Report author Howard Wilcox pointed out: "We are still in the early stages of the recession but we are already observing significant layoffs which will affect a market where the growth is fuelled by migrant workers sending remittances home to families. Workers from countries such as India, the Philippines and Mexico are likely to be hit in this way because of the sheer numbers working abroad as expatriates. However, we still see this market long term as a significant growth opportunity."
The Juniper report determined that all the mobile commerce market segments are still set to grow significantly over the next five years driven by a range of factors including user demand, but they will all be affected to a greater or lesser extent by the recession. The report includes a top level assessment of the impact of the global economic situation resulting from the credit crunch on the main mobile commerce market segments.