Deepfake-enabled fraud and account takeovers are no longer peripheral cases; they are driving losses at scale – the industry’s response has been equally direct
Last year’s rebuilding will accelerate in 2026. Networks will be exposed differently, brands will communicate more directly and verifiably with customers, and consumers will increasingly rely on mobile to pay, prove who they are and stay safe. The shift is structural, not cosmetic.
Digital identity
Authentication and digital identity moved decisively from incremental improvement to systemic change in 2025. At MEF Connects: ID & Wallets in London last May, industry leaders were clear: decentralised identity and national digital wallets are no longer experimental. They are becoming policy tools, with the EU Digital Identity (EUDI) Wallet set to catalyse adoption and standardisation in 2026.
The urgency is obvious. Deepfake-enabled fraud and account takeovers are no longer peripheral cases; they are driving losses at scale. The response has been equally direct: stronger biometrics with liveness detection, combined with network-based signals that bind an identity to a real, reachable user.
Beyond MEF, US policy discussions around passkeys and improved identity proofing show a similar shift in mindset. Identity is now being treated as national infrastructure rather than a niche IT function.
The unresolved issue for 2026 is monetisation. Identity is essential, but it is not free. If the industry cannot agree on how identity services are funded and valued, investment will stall just as adoption accelerates.
Network APIs
Network APIs crossed an important threshold in 2025, moving from concept to early commercial reality. Authentication remains the dominant use case, but demonstrations by Orange and Colt showed something more ambitious: applications dynamically requesting “quality on demand” and programming network behaviour across mobile and fixed domains.
This points to a future where telecoms sell programmable capability, not just connectivity – enabling AI workloads, cloud gaming and tele-robotics to negotiate latency and throughput rather than accept best-effort delivery.
The idea is compelling, but progress remains measured. Demand exists, but business models lag. APIs for single-charge authentication do not map cleanly onto SaaS-style subscriptions, volume discounts or outcome-based pricing.
As Open Gateway now covers close to 80% of global mobile subscribers and expands beyond fraud into performance and compute, the question for 2026 is not reach, but revenue. Monetisation and channel partnerships will determine whether network APIs scale or stagnate.
A2P messaging
Business messaging had its most consequential year in over a decade. Apple’s decision for iOS 18 to support RCS by default for cross-platform messaging reshaped the US market almost overnight, pushing person-to-person RCS traffic towards a billion messages a day. Richer messaging between iPhone and Android users became normal, not exceptional.
For enterprises, this unlocks verified, branded conversations via RCS Business Messaging. At the same time, WhatsApp continues to consolidate its role as a global A2P engine, particularly for commerce and conversational care, with Meta signalling a multi-billion-dollar run rate.
The result is a genuine messaging mix heading into 2026. RCS offers carrier-aligned, verified experiences at scale, albeit from a smaller base. WhatsApp delivers reach and engagement for commerce. SMS remains unmatched for universality, but its business model is under strain. Fraud, aggressive pricing and poor practices in some markets have eroded trust and value.
SMS must clean up its ecosystem in 2026 or face long-term decline.
Anti-fraud
Response to fraud matured in 2025, from fragmented efforts to coordinated action. MEF’s Anti Fraud 2025 convened operators, CPaaS platforms and regulators to address smishing, artificially inflated traffic (AIT) and AI-driven scams. The consensus was about what action is necessary was pragmatic rather than rhetorical: faster signal sharing, standardised sender verification and a balance between regulation and industry-led charters.
That cooperation has already begun, with CPaaS leaders committing to coordinated data sharing and anti-AIT practices.
In 2026, it will translate into tighter spoofing controls and deeper alignment between messaging verification, bank fraud telemetry and operators’ APIs such as for SIM-swap and number verification. Fraud prevention is becoming systemic and inseparable from trust in mobile channels.
Wholesale
Wholesale telecoms found renewed momentum by embracing eSIM travel, 5G roaming and IoT standardisation. MEF forums highlighted a practical agenda: monetise roaming in an eSIM world, reduce IoT complexity through common APIs and CDR formats, and retool voice to protect value as fraud evolves.
Satellite-to-mobile connectivity, once peripheral, has moved to the centre as a strategic complement, reshaping coverage economics and resilience assumptions.
In 2026, wholesale winners will be those who make roaming analytics and IoT provisioning self-service, and who integrate Open Gateway quality signals into enterprise SLAs. Despite maturity in some markets, wholesale remains an active innovation space.
Direct Carrier Billing
Direct carrier billing (DCB) endured intense competition from cards and wallets but remains vital for digital inclusion and incremental revenue, particularly in mobile-first markets. MEF’s activity in 2025 showed DCB progressing through stronger compliance, premium content strategies and broader app store integration. Analysts continue to forecast double-digit growth through the decade.
The 2026 outlook is twofold. Operators will push DCB towards full payment-method licensing, paired with fraud controls and transparent pricing. Merchants will increasingly treat DCB as a conversion tool for gaming, streaming and micro-subscriptions, not just as a fallback payment option.
Regulation shifts from reactive to shaping
Regulation evolved from reactive oversight to an active market-shaping force. In the US, policy choices around messaging, tariffs and verification will determine who captures value as channels converge. In Europe, fraud has become the dominant regulatory concern, with intervention in messaging and voice increasingly common. In Africa, cross-border settlement initiatives show what coordinated regulation and network action can achieve at scale.
Expect more structured co-regulation in 2026, combining industry charters with enforcement, alongside national wallet and trusted caller initiatives that put identity and consent at the forefront.
Trust is the value to build
Across all of this, trust emerged as the unifying theme. MEF’s Anti-Fraud Yearbook and event discussions repeatedly returned to the same conclusion: without consumer and enterprise confidence, advanced channels and APIs will underperform.
The industry’s response—agent verification in RCS, sender ID registries, shared fraud intelligence and privacy-preserving biometrics—suggests a more resilient ecosystem is taking shape.
About the author
Dario Betti is CEO of Mobile Ecosystem Forum (MEF) a global trade body established in 2000 with headquarters in the UK and members across the world. It focuses on cross-industry best practices, anti-fraud and monetisation. The Forum provides its members with global and cross-sector platforms for networking, collaboration and advancing industry solutions.
Web: https://mobileecosystemforum.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/mobile-ecosystem-forum
