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2011 Survey results and January issue now out

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January 2011 issue now ready to read

Remember Europe in 2010? Collapsing government finances, flu epidemics, harsh weather, austerity programmes, popular unrest being quashed by heavy-handed authorities, Barcelona playing football as if it were a game invented by J S Bach and perfected by Mozart?

I’m sure that you have all, aided by doses of optimism, Speyside’s finest single malts and the promise a bright new year, forgotten all about that. Indeed, I know that you are a forward looking bunch, with little to constrain you as you head into the year, save for a nagging doubt that you may be on the wrong roaming tariff.

I know this because so many of you took part in our Mobile Europe Ones to Watch in 2011 survey, and provided so much good comment. Now, I am sure that you have been thinking of little else as you stuffed the in-laws and roasted stockings over an open fire so I am happy to tell you that the wait is over, and the results of our survey are now public.

Just to remind you, we asked what services you thought would have most impact in 2011, what the top areas of operator investment would be, and which would be the companies and people to watch. We also asked you to get your pet peeves off your chest (a very popular section, this one) and what you thought was over-hyped.

If you would  like to read the full results, and frankly I think you should because you were a part of them, then you can do so here. Thankfully there are some surprising answers, as well as some pretty predictable ones, and some good rants in the “rant box”.

And as the results are out that also means that our December/January issue is out, bringing with it not just the goodness of the 2011 predictions survey, but also the analysts’ take on 2011, as well as a full slate of essays from industry participants on the year ahead. So there’s plenty to read there as you seek to remind yourself what this year could bring.

Not only that, but we carry a fine report on the mobile cloud services opportunity, and what operators will need to do to be fully cloud enabled, from Michael Knuckey, editor of Cloud Vision.

 

The mobile money revolution

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Keith Dyer speaks to Monitise’s Chief Commercial Officer, Lee Cameron, about the development of mobile money services in 2011.

Keith Dyer:
Lee, our reader research for this issue has strongly identified mobile payments as “one to watch” for 2011. As a major player in the mobile payments industry, where do you think NFC stands at the moment?

Lee Cameron:

NFC has certainly been an interesting topic to follow. I think one way of placing it in context is to grasp that we have now entered a second, more market-focussed, stage of development.

Over the last few years there were over a hundred trials around the world that were mostly aimed at providing a technical proof of concept, and at gathering evidence of consumer interest. These trials served those dual purposes very well: although there are still some important technical issues that need to be addressed the basics are now clear, and the trials also provided strong proof of consumer interest in mobile payment and NFC services.
Now, however, the industry is focussing on planning more consumer-centric commercial deployments. These are taking the initial trial services and developing them into applications such as over the air personalisation and integrated banking systems and services. That’s a different level of operation.
Two examples of this more consumer-centric approach are the large scale European trials in Nice and Sitges that are taking place. We have also seen MicroSD emerge as an alternative to device and SIM-based NFC. Your readers may already know that we at Monitise are working with Device Fidelity in some big trials in the USA with US Bank, the fifth largest bank in the USA.
We’re also seeing developments in handsets. Nokia’s C7, for example, is an NFC handset that someone would actually want to have as their primary handset, rather than as an additional device to their “proper” handset.

Keith Dyer:
Do you think this recent progress means we are nearer to commercial deployments on a wider scale?

Lee Cameron:

I think there are various people who are looking at 2011 to offer some actual commercial deployments. These won’t be the things being talked about years ago – which was essentially the vision of your bank accounts all fully embedded in your phone. Instead, I think we will see more interesting and consumer-centric services that act on mobile a bit like the cash part of your wallet. Something like a pre-pay contactless wallet that is tap and go, emulating the coffee/newspaper/sandwich part of my wallet. And when that gets low I can reload that directly from my bank account, just as if I were extracting cash from an ATM. It is these sorts of consumer-centric propositions that will be really interesting.
However, in 2011 I don’t think we’ll be looking at a revolution, because there are simply not the point of sale terminals out there. In fact there are several such chicken and egg situations. First we will need a contactless card rollout to drive terminal deployments, for instance. That’s something that doesn’t involve the mobile industry at all yet it’s something the mobile industry could well rely on to drive contactless user behaviour. Secondly, there is still the issue of what the business case for retailers is going to be, what is the demand for tap and go at point of sale from the retailers’ point of view?
I think you also need to think about driving user behaviour on the handset. Think about day one after a user gets a new handset and it tells him it is enabled for, say, Visa/Oyster. He’s only going to use that for mobile payments if he has been using his mobile to manage his bank account beforehand. In that respect this will also be an evolutionary thing. Realistically, the user will first of all need to be used to mobile banking, and then we are in a position to ask him, or her, to consider putting a card in the back of his phone.
Parallel to that is the mobile industry roadmap. Although I said that the Nokia handset shows progress we still need more handsets, that people will want, with some sort of NFC capabilities. MicroSD has potential in that it does not require people to have to change handsets, and that opens up some interesting new models in itself.
Our principle in all this is that we cannot afford to have a religious position. We are a heterogeneous provider, and not tied to one model. We make sure that we can support all of these by being NFC ready and MicroSD ready – as evidenced by our deployment in the USA. Really, we see commercial deployment as a subset of mobile banking that we support with our banking relationships. Once we see contactless enabled phones, then we are in a position to enable that to happen.

Keith Dyer:
You mentioned mobile banking and readers will be aware of Monitise’s presence in the mobile banking market. What is the current scope of your activities, in terms of the markets you address and solutions you can support?

Lee Cameron:

We are the lead player globally in mobile banking and money, with active operations on all four continents. After a successful float on AIM (the UK’s Alternative Investment Market) in June 2007 we have three years as an independent entity behind us and have achieved a current market capitalisation of £159 million. When we listed on AIM all our investment was targeted to create a banking grade and secure mobile banking platform, so that we can offer a mechanism for banks and mobile operators to enter the mobile banking and payments market.
In terms of geographies we have seen more progress in the UK than anywhere else and have successful relationships with RBS, Lloyds TSB and HSBC, providing mobile banking services for their customers.
In the USA we have a joint venture with FIS, the largest bank processing company, with approximately 300 banks on the platform, giving smaller banks access to m-banking and payments services. In July 2010 we signed a joint venture (JV) in India with Visa. We are in the early stages of setting up that business, and fully expect to have payments services in India in 2011. We also have a JV in AsiaPacific with our partner First Eastern. That JV is headquartered in Hong Kong and we are looking for deployments in neighbouring areas.
There are also a number of global customer relationships. Our partnership with Visa is key, and is also our largest, and we also work with Travelex and Standard Chartered Bank. This global activity means we have a broad range of live payment services, and deployment really depends what the bank wants to launch as part of their service set.

Keith Dyer:
With that experience, how do you view how mobile operators can play in mobile banking and mobile payments? What role should they take?

Lee Cameron:

Our relationships with mobile network operators span a number of different levels, but they tend to be concentrated in terms of commercial working relationships, whilst we have contractual relationships with financial services companies and banks. We continue to talk to network operators and involve them in all spaces where they wish to launch.
I think generally there’s a much broader recognition now of the need for collaboration between banks and operators; there’s more acceptance of the need for a mobile collaborative approach.
Operators are aware now that once they have connected money to mobile phones, there are a lot of different things they can do. The activity we are best known for is in mobile banking, but that then enables mobile shopping, mobile wallets, M-Pesa style virtual accounts, stock trading. These are all about providing secure, bank grade connectivity —all characteristics of things we’re good at. The core principles that underpin mobile banking can enable other providers of mobile money services – and that of course includes the mobile operator.

Keith Dyer:
And Monitise’s own role in this market?

Lee Cameron:

We are very clear on that. Mobile money is not just about cramming web services onto a small screen – mobile has its own story, and is something that requires a mobile-centric approach.
To address that, we have a platform and a network. Our Globe platform has built into it everything a bank or operator needs to bring mobile money to the mass market, from services, to business logic, to handset support.
Our network provides a unique way for us to connect together the different players in mobile markets. People want to connect with the world around them through their mobiles, and to enable that we need to create an efficient infrastructure that builds on those connections. We have proved we can do that.

M2M to double share of mobile connections by 2015 – Berg Insight

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According to new a research report from the analyst firm Berg Insight, 2.0 percent of the mobile network connections worldwide were used for wireless machine-to-machine (M2M) communication at the end of 2010. The number of M2M subscribers increased by 46 percent year-on-year to an estimated 81.4 million.

In the next five years, the total number of wireless M2M connections is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.0 percent to reach 294.1 million connections in 2015. By that year of the period M2M as a share of the total number of cellular connections is projected to reach 4.0 percent.

“M2M and connected devices is now one of the main drivers behind the growth in mobile subscribers in Europe and North America”, said Tobias Ryberg, Senior Analyst, Berg Insight. “All of the world’s largest telecom operators now have several million M2M subscribers in their mobile networks. In Q1-2011, we expect that AT&T will become the first mobile operators to reach 10 million M2M subscribers after more than doubling the installed base in the past 12 months, largely thanks to a successful strategy for connected consumer electronics devices.”

According to Ryberg, mobile operators are facing a new market landscape where customers no longer have one or two mobile subscriptions, but up to five or more different wireless devices. Besides his smartphone and tablet, a technology-savvy American is likely to own an e-reader and a connected PND, drive a car with an embedded telematics system and have a cellular security alarm installed at home.

His Scandinavian compatriot could have a smart electricity meter with embedded GPRS connectivity; a Frenchman may use a cellular speed control warning system and an Italian might have installed a car telematics device from his insurance company. Mr. Ryberg concludes that these are some glimpses of the future that will come and predicts that the vast majority of the world’s next five billion mobile connections will be embedded into consumer devices, machines and sensors.

Base station forecast picture = thousand words

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Here’s ABI’s “Featured Chart of the Week” (aren’t these analysts crazy with their chart of the week comps? I hear the compiler of the “Magic Quadrant of Magic Quadrants – Net of Declared Consulting Fees” chart was gutted to miss out.)

Anyway, if this chart is accurate, it says it all really. It’s called Net Base Station Equipment Spend, World Market Forecast, 2009-2015, as you can see. (Click on it for bigger image)

 

 

 

 

Not the top ten top tens for 2010

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Our final newsletter of 2010 hoves into view and you might think it would solely consist of items such as “Ten Things to Think About While You Wait For The Holidays”, but Ericsson put a cat amongst those thought pigeons by buying itself a little early Christmas present.

Yes, the Swedish outfit has added Optimi to its squad, giving it a bigger midfield presence in the network optimisation and SON game. This one is related to Ericsson’s role in network services, of course, where it has the ambition to extend its contracts beyond outsourced network management, and deeper into the IT practices of mobile operators as well. Optimi, with its OSS-based (something Ericsson was very keen to point out) network optimisation products, will help Ericsson manage multi-vendor and mutli-technology networks on behalf of its operator customers.

But back to the lists. Byte Mobile popped up with a list of data stats that it says it has observed in its customers’ networks. The stats’ headline finding is that there is no “busy hour” any more, with a pretty much constant network load across a 12 hour period. This is relevant in terms of defining tariffs, service launches, etc, but as a piece of network management or planning information, not of great help. Byte’s findings, if you take them as read, indicate that overall there is not much difference between ten at night and 3 in the afternoon. But you can bet your bottom dollar that on a per cell basis, there surely are busy hours. For instance, Byte also states that 10% of all users generate 85% of all data. So if those 10% are in any way mobile, then they will be shifting that load of data around with them, as they go to work and then return home. That alone is an optimisation challenge, as Ericsson would well know.

Another list – Google was the top website visited in 2010 by Opera Mini users. This is of limited use, again, as it tells us that people who use a web browser tend to start with Google. What was more interesting in Opera’s list was the amount of local-specific sites that featured highly. Outside of Facebook, YouTube and Yahoo there were Brazlian and Russian sites figuring highly – showing the extent of local + mobile. GetJar was also very high, at number 10 – perhaps an indication that those with “lesser” phones are still interested in apps, even if they don’t have an on-board app store.

Finally, there was news that the Cityzi service, the mobile payments pilot that is running in Nice, will go live across France next year, and that Orange will be pressing handset makers to include NFC-enabled SIMs in more handsets. Finally, perhaps, some egg before chicken movement on mass market NFC in Europe. More details in January, we hope, as it seems the Orange execs we need to speak to about this have all duly scarpered.

So there we are. Some lists, yes, but some actual news too. Who would have thought it? I’d like to wish all of you a Happy Christmas and a stupendous 2011. I will see you on the other side.

Keith Dyer
Editor
Mobile Europe

http://mobileeurope.co.uk/news/news-anaylsis/8368-the-death-of-the-busy-hour-how-mobile-data-works

http://mobileeurope.co.uk/news/news-anaylsis/8367-ericsson-acquires-optimi-to-boost-network-services-play

http://mobileeurope.co.uk/news/press-wire/8365-google-tops-web-list

How real-time charging and policy management are converging to drive more profitable mobile data plans
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/598143072

Four Years Later: The Evolving Femto Ecosystem and Value Proposition
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/122008297

Solutions for Mobile Broadband Profitability
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/548172536

The death of the busy hour – how mobile data works

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We have received some nice stats and graphs in from Byte Mobile, providing an insight into the network activity it observed during 2010. Some of the highlights Byte observed might be well known by now, but they reveal some good insight all the same – and particularly into how video is impacting the overall data load of the network.

1. The death of the busy hour
Network capacity is under a constant strain throughout the day and evening. With traffic peaks lasting up to 12 hours, so called “busy hours” are a thing of the past.

2. The data hog does exist
10% of all mobile data users generate approximately 85% of overall traffic in the network. Touch smartphone subscribers access and view video five times more than non-touch smartphone subscribers.

3 Video is the driver, and higher resolutions are set to take that further
Video accounts for 48% of total network traffic, with user-generated content such as YouTube dominating the consumption of network capacity. Today, higher-resolution video is requested a third less often than lower-resolution video yet generates a similar amount of the total data traffic in the network – 31% to 39%. This trend indicates that even a small increase in the number of users consuming higher-quality video will generate a significantly greater network traffic load.

4 Data offload is an option – as is optimisation

Mobile network operators are quickly evolving their networks in order to manage the strain on the radio access network (RAN), backhaul and core. They are employing data offload strategies using small cells and Wi-Fi, upgrading their backhaul, and adding smart capacity utilisation products to improve network efficiency and the delivery of multimedia content and video services.

Byte Mobile’s 2010 Mobile Minute Metrics Highlights

User Behavior

●The peak hours for data traffic in wireless networks are consistent throughout the day and evening.

●The most prevalent type of video on wireless networks worldwide continues to be user-generated content available on YouTube and Google Videos. On average, this content currently accounts for 48% of the total network video traffic.

 

 

 

●Today, higher-resolution video is requested a third less often than lower-resolution video yet generates a similar amount of the total data traffic in the network – 31% to 39%. This trend indicates that even a small increase in the number of users consuming higher-quality video will generate a significantly greater network traffic load.

●10% of all mobile data users generate approximately 85% of overall traffic in the network.

 

New Class of Mobile Devices

●A new generation of touchscreen mobile devices is driving increased video consumption, and the operators servicing these devices are experiencing significant network changes. This trend indicates that as mobile devices get smarter and the user experience improves, video consumption will continue to rapidly accelerate.

Multimedia Applications are Consuming Wireless Networks
●The mobile applications that consumed the highest amount of network bandwidth in 2010 were Media Player (mobile video), Web Browser (a significant portion being mobile video), iTunes, and Facebook. Media Player, Web Browser and iTunes generate approximately 87% of total data volume in the network. This trend confirms the shift to entertainment-based usage and demonstrates the impact of multimedia applications on wireless networks.

Ericsson acquires Optimi to boost network services play

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Purchase intended to expand network management and SON capabilities

Ericsson has acquired Optimi Corporation, a US-Spanish telecommunications vendor with a strong focus on OSS-based optimisation services, for an undisclosed amount.

The acquisition brings in approximately 200 personnel and a portfolio of services and tools that are intended to reinforce and consolidate Ericsson’s position in multi-technology, multi-vendor, Self-Organizing Networks (SONs) and OSS-based network optimisation.

An Ericsson statement said the acquisition would open up an opportunity for Ericsson to offer products and services providing more efficient planning, rollout and optimisation of radio networks.

“The Optimi portfolio complements our existing OSS portfolio, which today is largely deployed among networks managed by Ericsson,” said Magnus Mandersson, Senior Vice President and Head of Business Unit Global Services, Ericsson.  “Network optimisation is already a core business for Ericsson. Today’s acquisition is further proof of our commitment to support our customers in the transformation currently taking place within the telecommunications industry.”

Optimi markets design, optimisation and management solutions and claims leadership in multi-technology SONs. Optimi services and products are currently used by more than 50 leading operators.

The acquisition will be blended into Ericsson’s OSS/BSS divisions, and form part of its Global Services capability. Ericsson sees operators as increasingly needing the ability to manage multi-technology networks to increase quality of experience and reduce churn. It said the Optimi purchase is intended to boost its service capabilities in that area.

Opera releases WAC-ready widget runtime for Android

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Opera Software has introduced a widget runtime platform for Google’s Android operating system. The runtime will support the new Wholesale Applications Community (WAC) 1.0 Specification.

WAC is an alliance of the world’s leading mobile operators and OEMs, such as Vodafone, Verizon, China Mobile, Telenor, Telefonica, AT&T, Samsung, Huawei and others, working together to define, create and deploy a common mobile application platform.

This alpha release of Opera’s widget runtime for Android allows developers to get a head start in developing the next step in applications for smartphones. At the same time, the WAC implementation serves as a platform for distribution.

“It is a great pleasure for us to present our public implementation of the WAC 1.0 specification and to get developers going,” said Christen Krogh, Chief Developer Officer, Opera Software. “Opera is participating in WAC and remains committed to take the WAC platform to the masses.”

With the Widget runtime for Android, Opera enters a natural arena for its popular widget system. Currently, Opera has implemented cross-device widgets on the Opera desktop browser, Opera Mobile and Opera for devices.

“We are delighted that Opera is supporting WAC 1.0 with its new widget runtime” commented Peters Suh, CEO, WAC, “In the year since WAC was announced at Mobile World Congress in 2010 we have consistently hit our deadlines, and this announcement underlines that we are on schedule to launch WAC 1.0 devices and storefronts at Mobile World Congress 2011.”

To start developing widgets and begin implementing the WAC APIs, simply go download the runtime here.

Instructions can be found at: http://labs.opera.com/docs/wac/installation_instructions/ This runtime is provided for evaluation and demo purposes and is free of charge for all developers.

Read more about the WAC specifications here: http://www.wacapps.net/

Google tops mobile Web list

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At least amongst Opera Mini users

Opera’s year-end review of the most popular websites on mobile phones using its Opera Mini browser shows that Google once again rests at the top of the State of the Mobile Web top 30 list. In 2009, Facebook was king of the mobile Web. In 2010, Google returned to claim the top spot among more than 80 million Opera Mini users worldwide, knocking Facebook to the second spot.

Another rising star on the mobile web is e Twitter, while the older social network Friendster is decreasing in popularity on a global basis. The rapid growth of Twitter, rising eight places to #13 in the ranking, is mirrored by the rise of the social website Orkut as Brazilian web users take Opera Mini to their hearts.

“We believe people with access to information lead more social, more informed and more empowered lives,” said Jon von Tetzchner, Co-founder, Opera Software. “Growth in mobile browsing means the Web is pushing beyond its traditional borders. If the first era of the Web was about expanding the capability and content of the Web, the second age is clearly about access. In Opera we believe that access to the Web is a universal right.”

Top 10 global mobile websites for November 2010:

Google.com (up 1)
Facebook.com (down 1)
Vkontakte.ru
Youtube.com (up 4)
Odnoklassniki.ru (down 1)
Yandex.ru (up 1)
Yahoo.com (up 2)
My.opera.com (down 2)
Mail.ru (down 4)
Getjar.com (up 3)

For a complete top 30 list, visit the State of the Mobile Web site: www.opera.com/smw/2010/11/

As the mobile technology progresses, users constantly change their hardware to keep up. During 2010, the top list of mobile phones used to access the Web via Opera Mini changed significantly.  Close to half of the top 30 list in 2010 are handsets not present in the top 30 list for 2009. With one exception, the Nokia feature phones rule the top 10 list of the Opera Mini users’ phones.

Top 10 mobile phones for November 2010:

Nokia 5130 XpressMusic (up 1)
Nokia 2700c (up 5)
Nokia 6300 (down 2)
Nokia 2690 (new)
Apple iPhone (new)
Nokia 2330c (up 13)
Nokia 2730c (new)
Nokia N70 (down 4)
Nokia C3 (new)
Nokia 5310 XpressMusic (down 5)

Global trends:

Opera Mini saw significant increases in all three categories of growth in November 2010: unique users, pages viewed and data consumed. In all, 80.0 million people used Opera Mini in November, 44.6 billion pages were served, and 6.3 petabytes of operator data were compressed for Opera Mini users.

Nigeria passed the United States in terms of total Opera Mini users in the month of November.

The United Kingdom, Belarus, Philippines, Poland, Bangladesh and Germany all went up in the ranking of top 20 countries. Turkey was a new addition in November, as Malaysia fell off the list.

 

BullGuard launches Mobile Security 10

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BullGuard has announced the release of BullGuard Mobile Security 10 – a security solution for smartphones which it claime offers superior protection, more features and covers more platforms than any other product available today.

Features: Antivirus, Antispyware, Antitheft, Parental Control, Firewall, Spamfilter, Basic Backup, Support.
Operating Systems: BullGuard runs on Android, Symbian, Windows and Blackberry phones, covering more than 80% of the smartphone market.
Price: £19.95

Special launch promotion: To celebrate the launch, BullGuard is giving away 5,000 special edition of “BullGuard Mobile Antivirus” – the Antivirus module incorporated in BullGuard Mobile Security. www.bullguard.com/mobilespecial

BullGuard Mobile Security protects smartphones by stopping viruses, spyware and hackers from accessing the phone, and keeps personal details safe even if the phone is lost or stolen.

Wireless communication is without doubt one of the biggest advances to modern technology in recent times. Being able to access data including personal media, files, services and websites on the move without being physically connected to a source has brought a massive amount of convenience to our lives, as well as putting a wide range of technologies in the palm of our hands.

“It’s important to be aware of the potential dangers that may be involved, though,” stated Morten Rinder Stengaard, Product Manager at BullGuard. “We’ve come a long way from the antiquated “brick” that simply offered the ability to make calls on the move, and modern mobiles now offer access to the internet, allow you to perform financial transactions, place product orders, access emails, download games and applications and stream media all from the comfort of a handheld, as well as communicate with other users within range using wireless protocols such as Bluetooth.”

 

He continued: “All the risks that are a part of your life when you go online from your computer are just as real when you use your phone to check for Facebook updates and news, to receive e-mails and access your bank account. Viruses and other types of malware don’t care what device you use. They just need your phone to be switched on – that way they can call paid services, send text messages, steal and exploit personal information such as credit card details, passwords and phone numbers. In short, a smartphone without proper protection puts you at risk.”

Over the past year there has been an alarming increase in mobile-based viruses and malware. The rise in threats has led to an increasing demand for security software that is tailor-made for mobile devices. Mobile security is essentially a stripped down version of a security suite that might typically be found on a PC, but BullGuard Mobile Security also includes mobile-specific protection such as an antitheft module to allow users to remotely delete data, lock a device or locate it using GPS. Tailor-made backup tools can help to ensure that your contacts and other data is safely secured in another location for easy retrieval and spam filters screen text messages and calls.
BullGuard Mobile Security has more features and covers more platforms than any other product available, the company said.

The fact that BullGuard can be used on all major OSs means that users can easily transfer their security subscription to a new phone, regardless of which platform it runs on.

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