What stories will be hitting your screens and desks across 2008? If we knew that, then we wouldn’t be merely publishing the best wireless industry title in Europe, we’d be rich beyond our wildest dreams. But we can guess at the areas the news will come from, and ask a few of those involved to make their own guesses.
Sometimes the easiest way to look forward is to look back. If we do that with 2007 you can see several themes developing that would give us continuity into 2008.
At a broad strategic level, it appears likely that 2008 will see a real increase in the usage of internet services over mobile. 2007 say operators begin to offer "half open" internet services, with tight integrations done between the major players, the Yahoo!s and Windows Live properties, or YouTube and the major social networking sites. In 2008 we can expect that model to continue, but also to see the walls come down even further, aided by the increasing number of handsets with presence and location capabilities, with search embedded.
Of course, there will still be movement the other way, and expect client-led on device portals to have their say too, together with tight integration at the application level. Also expect to see a de-coupling between the on-device technology and the application, allowing operators to service and update a far higher number of features on the handset.
One further area of high interest to us at Mobile Europe is the impact Nokia's OVI initiative will have on the market. With Vodafone, and Telefonica, and TIM signed up to certain degrees, the question is, will other operators see the benefit of such a closely integrated structure with the dominant handset player in the market. The other question is, will other handset vendors follow tune. It doesn't seem likely that they are in a position to. They don't have the market share that Nokia does, which gives it the ability to strike deals with operators and with the content providers, such as the music publishers for its "comes with mobile" play. Sony Ericsson perhaps comes closest, especially in music where it can leverage Sony's Walkman brand to great effect. It seems likely that the other vendors will be targeted by the client providers for pre-installations of on-device portals and other client-server based applications, giving a more direct experience to online services and applications outside of a click-to-the-browser experience.
Incidentally, another area of content consumption ripe for exploitation in 2008 is the background download – or mobile podcast if you like. This is ideal for mobile because the download can be sent direct to the mobile, without having to be downloaded to a player from a PC. It also lends itself to longer downloads, which operators can't achieve through WAP. As Podcast proponent Monte Silver sayd, "Compare paying 2 Euro to download a one minute clip to paying five Euro a month for subscribing to five daily full-length podcasts as a major multi-national carrier/operator has just launched. Which would you prefer?" Further advantages to operators are that the download takes place at night when networks are emptier, and the handset is likely to be stationary too.
We're also expecting to see a shake out in mobile broadcast TV, as rising revenues in Italy convince many that the wholesale DVB-H model is the way to go ahead. France probably offers the most interesting market, and will also offer Alcatel-Lucent the most likely outlet for its DVB-SH version of the standard. OMA BCAST will continue its development, with smartcard profile really beginning to develop interoperability across the market.
There will also be a major shake out of operators' convergence strategies – either for the better or otherwise. We'll begin to see if this will impact consumer consciousness and really start to eat into fixed minutes and broadband provision in a meaningful way. To achieve this, though, there's a major battle to be fought at the brand and marketing level – get out there and spend, operators, and don't forget the customer service! Prediction for 2008 – some femto, a lot of advertising, not much WiMax, some tinkering with VoWiFi.
It also seems lkely that advertising is going to be a hot area – not least amongst those bidding to convince operators they are there for the operators' benefit, and not for the benefit of the ad service company. This now traditional split in the conent/mobile industry will be fierce in advertising. Yahoo! and Google offer huge market share and eye catching clients, mobile operators can offer brand extension. A handshake, such as bewteen Vodafone UK and Yahoo! and money can be shared around. On the other hand, if operators work with a company to serve their own ads to their clients, they can cut the dreaded internet giants out the loop. Can't they? So, to our prediction for 2008, a fierce war in the advertising market. The fascination with Blyk will die down.
Another service we'll tip for 2008 is banking. As we've seen this year, mobile banking is starting to be the area consumers are trusting – and the mobile lends itself very well to the model. The key here will be access to services from a full range of handsets, not just those loaded with a particular app, or those with certain operators who have certain partnerships with a particular bank. NFC of course will continue its push in payments and. Interestingly, may start to open itself up as an avenue for other applicaitions. According to IMS Research, Transport for London is currently trialling ‘touchpoints' that, when in close proximity to an NFC-enabled mobile phone, transmit local maps, directions and real-time travel advice to the handset. Value added services such as mobile coupons, identification/ authentication and peer-to-peer connections can also be implemented in this way.
IMS' John Devlin says, "What we envisage will be a multitude of applications all designed to benefit the user, improve their experience of transit, banking and payments solutions. However, it is definitely not a case of one size fits all and consumer adoption will vary widely, affected largely by cultural differences in consumer behaviour but also by the demands and competitive influences of local businesses. Of course, this all depends on the various stakeholders agreeing a suitable business model, and relevant revenue streams, for each particular case."
But there's so much more than these likely hot services, applications and delivery methods likely to make a splash in 2008. Don't just take our word for it, read what our experts have to say on areas as diverse as backhaul to mobile device interface developments.
VoWiFi meets its demise
"With or without Femtocells, the much over-hyped Voice over WiFi will still not gain traction in 2008.
"With ‘Home Zone' pricing and operators taking a decisive lead in Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC), arbitrage advantages of VoWiFi have already met their demise. Already, companies no longer talk about potential, promised cost-savings of VoWiFi, but instead seek to achieve vast hardware cost savings by not installing IP desk phones and expensive private voice networks.
"This shift is hardly surprising as (unused) deskphones and private voice networks comprise 80% of the cost of an IP telephony deployment – and VoWiFi only adds significant hardware costs without even a hint of mobile call cost savings. Aside from a complete lack of cost-savings prospects for VoWiFi, the technology is not market ready.
"In this age-old war of hardware vendor pitted against service provider, it is the service provider that will win this battle – it is a simple matter of economics, and know how. Operators will come armed with advanced lower-cost software, QoS, and even femtocells to provide low-cost spot coverage.
2008 is the year of ‘Death of the Deskphone', and of the ‘Death of the Private Network'.
Marie Wold, President & CFO for OnRelay
2008: the year of personal navigation
It is a strange paradox of the mobile industry that it spends its time teaching consumers that their mobile phone is not really a mobile phone. That's one of the reasons that mobile operators spend millions on advertising and consumer education – while technology has evolved, the imagination and engagement of consumers has lagged behind. Consumers want relevance and immediacy from their mobile. Information and content must be immediate, and above all, useful.
The arrival of device convergence and high-speed networks within the mass-market means that the next year will see mobile applications with the kind of interactivity and depth that hasn't been seen before. Best of all, we will see a dynamic change in the use of mobiles as a seamless navigation device. More than just instructions on how to get from A to B, mobile personal navigation brings together content, location, reach and personalization in an experience that has often been promised, but seldom delivered.
Personal navigation is about searching and sharing information that is directly relevant to the individual based on the context of where, when and even who they are. This moves beyond maps as a static route planner, instead moving the concept of navigation towards real-time personal content. Imagine the advantages of such tailored information about local neighborhoods, foreign cities or even whole countries, with maps, information and points of interest all generated dynamically in real-time.
From an operators perspective, a readily deployable service like personal navigation has the potential to increase ARPU from existing subscribers, as well as the potential to attract new ones. With more operators offering flat-rate data plans coupled with high-end devices, always-on data services like navigation have become a realistic proposition to a broad consumer base. Personal navigation could prove to be the killer application that brings together the technologies that have so far existed in isolation; personal navigation is about the advantages of convergence.
We have already witnessed the beginnings of an evolution in personal navigation with the launch of the GPS enabled Nokia N95, Samsung P550i and BlackBerry 8800 and 8310 handsets. Next year 10-15% of new mobile devices launched in Europe will be GPS enabled, 15-20% worldwide, and over 50% within 5 years. With worldwide sales of mobile phones set to hit the billion mark in 2008 that means almost a quarter of a billion phones worldwide with GPS by 2008.
In October this year, Morgan Stanley forecast the market for mobile navigation will be worth more than €150 billion by 2015. Unrealistic? Perhaps when compared to other mobile-centric applications like gaming, music and video, but personal navigation is something which is much more than the sum of its parts, offering something that could not have existed before now. The technology is here; consumers are ready. The stage is set for 2008 to be the first year in the history of personal mobile navigation.
Oren Nissim, CEO of Telmap
Five top mobile trends for 2008
1) Open Source Mobile Applications – As the development of applications for Google's highly anticipated Android platform becomes a topic of discussion, several open platform devices will rise to the surface, fostering new innovations in mobile application development, however we will not see any devices until the end of 2008. Most large carriers and applications developers will take a "wait and see" attitude. Introducing yet another mobile operating system into an already fragmented market will take years, and the thorough testing of a platform with 30+ parties will be a significant hurdle.
2) Femtocells – Femtocells are a cost-efficient method for providing improved mobile phone coverage at home, small businesses and enterprises. In 2008 we will see the first roll-outs of femtocells by large wireless and wireless/converged operators. We expect a variety of business models, such as enterprises receiving subsidised femtocells with new service contracts and direct sales of femtocells to consumers. Along with the challenge of creating small form factor base stations, there remain technical obstacles of operational and billing support systems, and the network management of femtocells
3) WiFi Ubiquity – 2008 will witness the break-out of WiFi. It will no longer be restricted to PC usage. We will see wide-spread WiFi integration with consumer electronics, such as digital picture frames, automotive infotainment (download of music, podcasts, latest navigation maps and traffic information), cameras and music players.
4) IMS – IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) will enable futuristic applications, such as still photos to the set-top box, video home surveillance for mobile phones and location-based technologies that combine a fixed and mobile presence. The biggest challenge for IMS is integration and interoperability with existing networks. In 2008 we will see the introduction of Voice Call Continuity architectures, developed to support existing handsets and new VCC-client based handsets.
5) Complexity – The advent of WiMAX, femtocells, fixed mobile convergence, open source mobile devices, all indicate that life for mobile network operators, equipment manufacturers and device manufacturers will continue to get more complicated. However, in 2008 consumers will seek the brands that make this complex experience simple.
Sanjay Dhawan, President & Chief Operating Officer, Aricent
Four key issues for the year ahead
1. IP comes to mobile
As data traffic continues to increase, and operators increasingly promote data tariffs, 2008 will see mobile operators beginning to optimise their networks for data. Carrier-class Ethernet will become more prominent in backhaul networks – particularly with microwave backhaul. The coming twelve months will see the mass launch of IP-enabled basestations following their trial throughout 2007. 2008 will see operators use these basestations to add capacity and scale up their networks – notably using the features of IP to route information between nodes to make best use of the available backhaul links. This advancement is leading the move to wireless carrier Ethernet, supported by the work of the Metro Ethernet Forum (MEF). The forum recognises that Ethernet is not just for fixed networks, but also for wireless communication. Harris Stratex Networks' Eclipse carrier Ethernet wireless transport platform was the first wireless product to receive certification from the Metro Ethernet Forum (MEF).
2. Machine-to-machine communications
Where 2007 saw a growth in data services for people, 2008 will see massive growth in data services for machines. Machine-to-machine communication over cheaper wireless broadband services will see remote devices deployed in places and applications that would have been impossible before – such as providing remote video surveillance of large areas like borders.
3. WiMAX – is it the future?
There continues to be a lot of activity in the area of WiMAX, namely the first consumer based WiMAX handheld devices going on sale early next year. If companies like Nokia have read the market correctly, is the infrastructure in place currently to support mass consumer demand?
The reality is that the future of mobile telecommunication will not just consist of one single technology, such as UMTS – it will be a big mesh of UMTS, WiMAX and home WiFi. Users will experience a seamless mobility through a combination of all these networks.
In the past there has not been a great deal of technological progress in terms of integrating these different technologies. 2007 has seen the launch of many new pre-WiMAX and WiMAX networks – something that will continue into 2008. Complete integration of these technologies is not likely to happen for some years, so consumers may have to wait to fully benefit from all WiMAX has to offer.
4. Solving 3G bottlenecks
One of the key issues to mobile operators in 2007 has been provisioning of high bandwidth services to customers. Widespread deployment of technologies that will allow operators to get higher capacity through their networks, such as adaptive modulation for microwave, will help solve the backhaul bottlenecks in 3G networks.The emergence of adaptive modulation will give mobile operators the ability to dynamically adapt the speed of a link to improve customer mobile broadband speeds and also launch new bandwidth intensive services.
David Bonner, product-marketing manager, Harris Stratex Networks.
