The analyst group says Open RAN is increasingly shaping next-generation radio platforms, even as Cloud RAN and multi-vendor deployments face tougher commercial and technical headwinds
Dell’Oro Group has revised its long-term Open RAN forecast upwards, arguing that expectations around the role of open architectures in future 5G evolution and early 6G deployments are strengthening, despite slower-than-hoped progress in the near term.
In its latest Open RAN report, Dell’Oro said Open RAN has “come a long way” since the formation of the Open RAN Alliance in 2018, but acknowledged that industry results to date have been mixed and that operator expectations have become more nuanced. While early enthusiasm centred on rapid multi-vendor disaggregation, the market has increasingly focused on more pragmatic outcomes, particularly around open fronthaul and platform evolution.
“Openness, intelligence, automation, and virtualisation remain key pillars in the next-generation RAN platforms,” said Dell’Oro Group vice-president of RAN market research Stefan Pongratz. “But the adoption curves vary. The likelihood that Open RAN, Cloud RAN, and multi-vendor RAN will play a major role in the second half of 5G and from the start with 6G is likely, less likely, and unlikely, respectively.”
Dell’Oro has revised down its near-term Open RAN revenue expectations, reflecting the slower pace of large-scale commercial roll-outs and the complexity of integrating new architectures into live networks. However, the analyst group said its longer-term growth assumptions have strengthened as Open Fronthaul (Open FH) gains traction and strategic clarity. According to the report, Open FH is increasingly being specified as a baseline requirement for next-generation RAN platforms, even in deployments that do not fully embrace disaggregated, multi-vendor models.
By contrast, Cloud RAN forecasts have been revised downward. While virtualisation remains central to long-term RAN roadmaps, Dell’Oro said ongoing challenges around performance, power consumption and cost parity with purpose-built RAN hardware are delaying large-scale adoption. These constraints are particularly acute as operators balance energy efficiency targets with rising network capacity demands.
The outlook for multi-vendor RAN has also been scaled back. Dell’Oro now expects multi-vendor RAN to account for less than five per cent of total RAN by 2030, down from a previous forecast of between five and ten per cent. The revision reflects the operational complexity of managing disaggregated supply chains and the continued dominance of single-vendor deployments in macro networks.
