Operators have more network capacity now than during the 4G-5G transition so cumulative 6G RAN revenue in the first 6 years is projected to be 10-20% lower than it was for 5G
According to the 6G Advanced Research Report from Dell’Oro Group, 6G development is progressing rapidly. The report’s base-case scenario envisions 6G as an evolutionary technology that builds on Massive MIMO, a grid of existing sites and wider channel bandwidths to deliver step-change improvements in the RAN’s economics.
“While the G decoupling movement is gaining momentum for all the right reasons, the most likely scenario is still that 6G will be another G, with 6G RAN capex expected to accelerate toward the end of the decade,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex Research at Dell’Oro Group. “
“At the same time, operators are in a much stronger position today from a network capacity perspective than they were during the transition from 4G to 5G. As a result, cumulative 6G RAN revenue during the first six years of the cycle is projected to be 10 to 20% lower than during the comparable period of the 5G cycle.”
Additional highlights from the report include:
- 6G RAN is expected to scale rapidly, with cumulative RAN revenue and wireless [mobile] capex during the first six years projected to exceed $100 billion and $500 billion, respectively.
- 6G is not expected to expand the overall RAN market – instead, the baseline scenario projects the broader RAN market to grow at a 1% CAGR between 2030 and 2034.
- Sub-7 GHz and cmWave spectrum [7-15GHz] bands are expected to play important roles in 6G deployments – momentum behind spectrum above 7 GHz is building.
- Cumulative 6G RAN investments between 2029 and 2034 are projected to account for about half of RAN’s total capex in the same forecast period.
