Wireless capex to revenue ratio is to approach 11% by 2029: some estimates reckon it peaked at 19-25% in 2020-2022 as operators built out 5G and, to a lesser degree, fibre
Dell’Oro Group says telecom investment trends are entering a new phase as dynamics evolve between telecom operators, vendors and cloud players. Its Telecom Capex Report finds capex was flat in nominal US dollar terms in 2025, based on analysis of about 50 service providers which between them account for some 80% of global capex.
This implies that the relationship between capex and telecom equipment revenue across the six programs tracked by Dell’Oro Group – Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), RAN and Service Provider Router & Switch – remained stable. Note that equipment manufacturers’ revenue increased 4% year-on-year in 2025.
The slightly stronger equipment versus capex growth can, to some degree, be explained by the boost from the cloud providers. Dell’Oro Group estimates they accounted for around half of the growth in equipment revenue.
Dell’Oro predicts that worldwide telecom capex is projected to decline 2% in 2026 then grow at a 1% percent CAGR through to 2030.
It expects carriers’ revenues to increase by about 2% CAGR, but the capex-to-revenue ratio is projected to approach 14% by 2029.
Wireless capital intensity [ratio of wireless capex to total revenues] are projected to approach 11% in 2029, down 7% from the 5G peak.
“We’re seeing an interesting dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators remain optimistic about the long-term network vision, particularly as AI drives new demand, but in the short term they are taking a more cautious stance, with many planning to moderate capex,” he added
