Mobile RAN 5-Year forecast is $40 billion in global revenue
The radio access network (RAN) market is proving remarkably durable and demand for its products has survived war, famine and pestilence, according to the latest market intelligence from the Dell ‘Oro Group.
The research group’s July Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report said RAN sales remains on track for a fifth consecutive year of growth in 2022 and global revenues are projected to stay above €40 billion by 2026.
Despite the Ukraine-Russia conflict, a looming food crisis caused by supply chain failures and farming disputes and the continuing Covid crisis, investment in next generation network technology is growing. It may even be seen as the way out of the crisis, according to Stefan Pongratz, VP and analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. Could 5G help to reconfigure the supply chain under the pressure of governments? Will this stimulate sales?
The risks may have changed but the rewards are better, said Pongratz: “The underlying fundamentals remain healthy. The more optimistic and pessimistic projections have been modified, but we have not made any major adjustments to the baseline scenario with global RAN expanding further.”
Slower mmWave growth in 2021 is not materially impacting the forecast – mmWave is still projected to account for 2 to 4% of the 2022-2026 RAN market. Global Massive MIMO growth prospects are projected to slow reflecting challenging comparisons in some of the advanced Massive MIMO markets. Small cell RAN revenues are projected to grow at 6% underpinned by healthy 5G growth.
Though RAN sales are growing over the near term you should expect them to slow in the outer part of the forecast period, resulting in a ‘flat compound annual growth rate’ in ‘nominal US dollar terms’ between 2021 and 2026, said Pongratz. Hopefully this ominous sounding euphemism is explained in the report.
Meanwhile the Chinese RAN market is expected to peak in 2022 before decelerating in the outer part of the forecast period. The implications for those parts of the world where Chinese kit is not banned, such as the Middle East and Africa. RAN investments in the North America region are also expected to peak in 2022 and ‘give up some gains’ (another mysterious euphemism) in the outer part of the forecast period.
Dell’Oro Group’s Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report reviews the Mobile RAN industry by region – North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific, China, and Caribbean & Latin America.